●InvestigationsCongress made VA disability claims free to file. An entire industry charges veterans anyway — and nobody can stop them.→

Vol. 1 / July 2026

State of the MOS.

The MOS you signed for in 2020 doesn’t exist in 2026. Jobs are created, renamed, consolidated, automated, and quietly killed — and nobody publishes a public-facing reference on what changed.

This is the twice-a-year, cross-branch, independent reference on the health and trajectory of every Military Occupational Specialty in the U.S. military. Vol. 1 releases July 31, 2026.

Methodology Press kit

MOS Mortality Events

Section 2 data

MOS Creation Events

Section 3 data

Evolution Signals

Sections 5 & 6

Published Volumes

Twice a year

Vol. 1 · The Watch List

The seats moving under your feet.

Ukraine turned a $500 drone into a tank-killer and made the manned helicopter a target. Iran threw the largest missile salvos US air-defense crews have ever answered. The services watched — and they have already signed the paperwork that turns those lessons into jobs created and jobs cut.

This is our 12-month read on which seats are shrinking and which are being born. Every call is bolted to a memo, a budget line, or a signed message — and every one is cited.

How to read this — straight

We forecast the seat, not your code. "The Apache pilot seat is shrinking" is a call we can defend. "MOS 15A is being deleted" is not — no source says that, so we don't either. When a source names a code being cut (the Marines deleted 1811), we say code named in source. When we connected a platform or unit decision to a specialty ourselves, we say our crosswalk. Believe the first more than the second.
Every call is stamped with a date. This stuff moves — Congress already reversed one cancellation on this list. A stamp isn't hedging; it's honesty about a moving target.
Thin is labeled thin. High / medium / low means what it says. A budget request is not a fielded cut, and we mark it so.

Top of the pyramid

They're cutting generals too.

All ServicesShrinkingHigh confidence· directed May 2025

The general officer corps — every service

O-7 to O-10code named in source

This one isn't Ukraine or Iran — it's the Pentagon deciding it has more chiefs than the fight needs.

The signal

The SecDef "Directing General and Flag Officer Reductions" memo orders at least a 20% cut to active-duty four-stars (~7–8 of fewer than 40), roughly 20% off National Guard general officers, and a further 10% across all ~900 general and flag officers, in two phases tied to a Unified Command Plan realignment.

If you're in this seat

You don't pivot a four-star. But if you're an O-5/O-6 doing the math on your star: there are about to be fewer of them, and the ones that survive are the ones tied to a warfighting command, not a headquarters staff.

Military.com — Hegseth GO/FO reduction memo ↗USNI News — "Less Generals, More GIs" memo ↗

9 seats

At risk — shrinking or rebuilt

ArmyShrinkingHigh confidence· as of Dec 2025

The Apache attack-pilot and Apache-repairer seat

15-series aviation / 15R (crosswalk)our crosswalk — not a named cut

Ukraine made the case in blood: a manned attack helicopter is a very expensive target for a very cheap missile. The Army noticed.

The signal

The Army Transformation Initiative cuts one Aerial Cavalry Squadron per Combat Aviation Brigade — seven already deactivated Oct–Dec 2025 — and cancels procurement of the AH-64D and the Gray Eagle drone. That is roughly half of each division's 48 Apaches.

If you're in this seat

The seats being cut here are the same skills the Army is buying by the thousand one category over — UAS operation and maintenance. That is the shortest walk on this whole list.

AsteriskA reported May 2026 SecDef re-look may slow the aviation cuts. The cancellation directive stood as of our sources.

SecDef Army Transformation memo (Apr 30 2025) ↗CRS R48606 — ATI force structure ↗

ArmyReshapedHigh confidence· as of Dec 2025

The traditional infantry-brigade line

11-series infantry (crosswalk)our crosswalk — not a named cut

Massed dismounts and armor in the open die to FPV and loitering munitions in Ukraine. The brigade is being rebuilt to disperse and to fly its own drones.

The signal

All ~14 active Infantry Brigade Combat Teams convert to Mobile Brigade Combat Teams — roughly 4,500 soldiers down to ~1,900 — trading TOW anti-armor for loitering munitions and adding a reconnaissance-and-effects company. Five convert in FY2026.

If you're in this seat

The infantry seat isn't vanishing — it's getting a drone strapped to it. The Soldiers who learn the organic-drone job first are the ones who keep leading squads.

CRS R48606 — ATI force structure ↗SecDef Army Transformation memo (Apr 30 2025) ↗

ArmyShrinkingMedium confidence· as of Dec 2025

The heavy-armor crew seat

19K (crosswalk)our crosswalk — not a named cut

The tank isn't dead, but the FY2026 request leans away from heavy ground systems and toward things that shoot back at drones and missiles.

The signal

The ATI memo names "select armor" units for divestiture, and the FY2026 budget proposes cutting funding for certain ground systems. This is pressure, not a signed elimination — hence medium confidence.

If you're in this seat

Armor crews already read terrain and run gunnery. Air-and-missile defense and fires — both growing — are the natural landing spots.

AsteriskBudget-request pressure, not a fielded cut. Congress can restore ground-system lines.

SecDef Army Transformation memo (Apr 30 2025) ↗CRS R48860 — FY2026 defense budget ↗

MarinesShrinkingHigh confidence· complete

The Marine tank crewman

1812 (armor Marine) — also cuts 1802, 1869, 2146code named in source

The Marines bet that in the Pacific fight they need missiles that hit ships, not tanks that hold ground. So they gave the tanks away.

The signal

This is the rare case where a source names the codes: MARADMIN 302/20 eliminated ALL Marine tank battalions and four associated MOSs — 1812 (armor Marine), 1802 (tank officer), 1869 (senior armor SNCO), 2146 (main battle tank repairer/technician) — and shipped 400+ of 450+ tanks to the Army. Not shrinking — gone.

If you're in this seat

Marine armor crews largely reclassed years ago. The lesson is the tell: the Corps will delete a 100-year-old job overnight when the fight changes.

CRS R47614 — USMC Force Design ↗

MarinesShrinkingHigh confidence· as of 2025

The cannon-artillery seat

Towed tubes are slow to move and easy to find. Rockets and anti-ship missiles reach farther and displace faster.

The signal

Force Design cut cannon-artillery batteries from 21 to 5 (later refined upward toward ~7) while planning a 300% increase in rocket-artillery capacity.

If you're in this seat

The fires community isn't shrinking — it's changing calibers. NMESIS and HIMARS crews are where the growth is.

CRS R47614 — USMC Force Design ↗

NavyShrinkingHigh confidence· FY2026

The Ticonderoga cruiser crew

The old cruisers are expensive to keep and the hulls are worn. Their air-defense mission is moving to newer platforms.

The signal

Two more Ticonderoga cruisers (Shiloh, Lake Erie) retire in FY2026, taking the cruiser fleet down to five.

If you're in this seat

The air-defense mission isn't leaving the Navy — it's moving to destroyers and the Aegis fleet. Follow the mission, not the hull.

Seapower — Navy FY2026 ship retirements ↗

Air ForceShrinkingMedium confidence· FY2026 request

The A-10 close-air-support seat

The Warthog is beloved and slow, and a low, slow gun-truck does not survive modern air defenses. The Air Force has wanted it gone for a decade.

The signal

The FY2026 plan retires the last 162 A-10s as part of divesting 340 aircraft — the pilots and maintainers move on.

If you're in this seat

CAS as a mission survives in other airframes and increasingly in drones. The seat moves; the mission doesn't die.

AsteriskA budget request. Congress has blocked A-10 retirements repeatedly — verify final appropriations before treating it as done.

Defense News — USAF FY2026 A-10/E-7/CCA plan ↗

Air ForceReshapedMedium confidence· as of FY2026 NDAA

The E-7 Wedgetail battle-management seat

The system tried to cancel it over cost and survivability. Congress said the airspace-management mission still matters and put the money back.

The signal

The FY2026 request killed the E-7; the FY2026 NDAA reversed it (+$649M, termination blocked). We flag this as the reminder that a "shrinking" call can un-shrink between the request and the law.

If you're in this seat

Nothing to flee here — the point is the caveat. Watch the appropriations, not the headline.

Air & Space Forces Mag — Congress saves E-7 ↗Defense News — USAF FY2026 A-10/E-7/CCA plan ↗

Coast GuardReshapedLow confidence· as of Aug 2025

Coast Guard ratings — battlefield-driven change is thin

The Coast Guard fights a different war — smuggling, migration, search-and-rescue — so the drone-and-missile pressures hit it last and lightest.

The signal

No rating is being cut or created on battlefield grounds. The one signal worth naming: Force Design 2028 stood up a Program Executive Office for Robotics and Autonomous Systems (reached initial capability Aug 2025), which spans counter-drone work. Institutional, not yet a rating.

If you're in this seat

Nothing to run from. If unmanned systems interest you, this is the corner of the Coast Guard that's about to grow.

AsteriskAn acquisition office, not a new rating. Low confidence on any near-term rating-level change.

USCG — PEO Robotics & Autonomous Systems ↗

7 seats

On the rise — born or expanding

ArmyExpandingHigh confidence· as of Dec 2025

The drone operator / launched-effects seat

Ukraine stood up a whole branch for this. The US Army is not going to be the force that shows up to a drone war without drone operators.

The signal

ATI directs fielding unmanned systems and launched effects in EVERY division by the end of 2026, buys five brigades' worth of loitering munitions and off-the-shelf drones for ten more, and pushes one-way attack drones down to squad level.

If you're in this seat

This is the single clearest growth seat on the list. If you're being displaced from a divested platform, this is where the Army is pointing you.

SecDef Army Transformation memo (Apr 30 2025) ↗CRS R48606 — ATI force structure ↗

ArmyNew seatHigh confidence· as of Mar 2025

The counter-drone seat

Every side in every current fight is getting swarmed. Somebody has to shoot the drones down — cheaply, and a lot.

The signal

The Army is standing up nine dedicated counter-UAS batteries and pushing counter-drone tasks into maneuver platoons by 2026 and companies by 2027. As of March 2025, though, there was no dedicated counter-UAS MOS — it's a new mission riding on existing air-defense and everyone-does-it tasks.

If you're in this seat

Air-defense (14-series) crews and EW operators are the natural home. Watch for a dedicated code — the pressure to create one is real.

AsteriskA role and new unit structure, not yet a standalone MOS. First battery activates FY2029.

CRS R48477 — Army air & missile defense / C-UAS ↗SecDef Army Transformation memo (Apr 30 2025) ↗

ArmyExpandingHigh confidence· as of 2025

The air-and-missile-defense crew seat

14-series (Patriot, THAAD-adjacent)code named in source

On June 23, 2025, Army Patriot crews fired the largest Patriot salvo in US history defending Al Udeid from Iranian ballistic missiles — no casualties. That is the whole argument in one night.

The signal

The Army is standing up as many as four more Patriot battalions (15 → 18 plus a Guam unit), nine IFPC battalions, an M-SHORAD battalion, and three division air-defense battalions. The FY2026 NDAA put $13.2B into air-and-missile defense — $2.9B above the request.

If you're in this seat

This is the safest seat on the board and it takes transfers. If you're leaving a cut platform, 14-series wants you.

army.mil — Army to bolster Patriot fleet ↗CRS R48606 — ATI force structure ↗

MarinesNew seatHigh confidence· as of Dec 2025

The Marine attack-drone operator

sUAS operator 7314/7316code named in source

Ukraine's FPV war, imported wholesale. The Corps is building a career field around a $500 drone that kills a $5M vehicle.

The signal

MARADMIN 624/25 (Dec 2025) launched six drone courses and eight certifications open to any MOS — including a lethal Attack Drone Operator and an explosive-handling Payload Specialist — plus a lateral-transfer pathway into sUAS operator (7314/7316) starting Jan 1, 2026. Rifle squads went back to 13 Marines with an organic drone operator.

If you're in this seat

If you're a Marine whose contract ends in the FY27 window, this is the door the Corps is holding open on purpose.

AsteriskCurrently pilot programs targeting full operational capability in 2028 — not yet a permanent primary MOS.

MARADMIN 624/25 — sUAS training requirements ↗DefenseScoop — USMC sUAS operator MOS pathway ↗

NavyNew seatHigh confidence· established Feb 2024

The Robotics Warfare Specialist

RW (rating)code named in source

Unmanned surface and undersea craft are moving from experiment to fleet. Somebody rated has to run and fix them.

The signal

The Navy created a brand-new enlisted rating — Robotics Warfare Specialist (RW), NAVADMIN 036/24 — for robotic/autonomous systems, computer vision, and machine learning at the tactical edge. A new rating is the single strongest "born" signal there is.

If you're in this seat

This is a ground-floor rating in the exact area every navy on earth is racing toward. Early is an advantage.

NAVADMIN 036/24 — Robotics Warfare Specialist rating ↗

Air ForceNew seatHigh confidence· as of 2026

The drone-wingman (CCA) operator and maintainer seat

The math of a peer air war says you cannot afford enough manned fighters. Cheap, semi-autonomous wingmen are the answer everyone landed on.

The signal

The Air Force put $807M into Collaborative Combat Aircraft in FY2026 and picked General Atomics (YFQ-42A) and Anduril (YFQ-44A) to build the first US CCA — new autonomy-operator and maintainer work.

If you're in this seat

RPA and autonomy backgrounds are the front of this line. It's where fighter-adjacent careers are heading.

Defense News — USAF FY2026 A-10/E-7/CCA plan ↗Breaking Defense — CCA selection (GA, Anduril) ↗

Space ForceExpandingMedium confidence· as of 2026

The orbital-warfare, space-domain-awareness, EW and cyber Guardian

Space stopped being a support function and became a contested domain. Add Golden Dome, and the missile-defense mission runs partly through orbit.

The signal

The Space Force's Objective Force vision grows the space-domain-awareness mission ~30% in people and stands up a new Space-Based Moving Target Indication Delta with dedicated squadrons; the service is broadly aiming to roughly double its uniformed force. Orbital warfare, EW, and cyber are all named growth areas.

If you're in this seat

This is the one service that is almost entirely a growth story. Technical aptitude plus a clearance is the ticket.

AsteriskGrowth is directional and vision-document-based; specific billet counts and timelines are still firming — medium confidence.

Air Force Times — Space Force Objective Force vision ↗

How we built this section

Findings were drawn from primary sources — CRS reports, the Army Transformation Initiative memo, service messages (MARADMIN, NAVADMIN), FY2026 budget documents, and official announcements — and corroborated with reputable defense reporting, then independently verified. Where a service's picture was thin (Coast Guard), we said so rather than manufacture a trend. Nothing here predicts any individual's future — it's a read on force structure. Back to the report →

Vol. 1 — Table of Contents

Twelve sections. Each one a piece a reporter can quote without reading the rest.

The 10 Things That Changed

Executive summary the press releases steal.

Read this section ↓

The MOS Mortality List

Jobs that died, are dying, or were quietly consolidated. Tombstone per MOS.

Read this section ↓

The MOS Inflation List

Cyber, space, drone, AI — what exploded, and the attrition no one talks about.

Read this section ↓

The Recruiter Lie Index

Verification-weighted gap between recruiter pitch and reviewed reality. Top divergences ranked.

The Drone Displacement Map

Pre-drone doctrine vs. post-drone allocation, by MOS. Sankey-mapped.

Read this section ↓

The AI Displacement Forecast

Intel, linguist, imagery, HR — 5-year automation projections with confidence labels.

Read this section ↓

Hidden Pay Realities

SRB qualification rates, special pay reality, promised vs. paid deltas.

The Civilian Transition Gap

Which MOS translates cleanly. Which strands you.

Read this section ↓

The OPTEMPO Truth

Deployments, TDY, family impact — published data, aggregated honestly.

Read this section ↓

Branch-by-Branch Comparison

Same job, four branches, four lives. The matrix recruiters never show.

The 2026–2030 Forecast

New MOS standing up. MOS expected to consolidate. The recommendation if you’re enlisting in 2026.

Read this section ↓

Methodology, Limitations, Sources

Sample sizes, weighting math, gaps, errata. Credibility lives here.

Read this section ↓

Section 01

The 10 Things That Changed.

The executive summary. Every line below is sourced and expanded in the section it links to — nothing here is new, it's the distillation.

The Marine Corps deleted an entire MOS.

Scout Sniper (0317) graduated its final class December 15, 2023. The force-design replacement explicitly cites organic drones at every echelon, from Black Hornet at fire-team level to Stalker Block 30 at company.

AI already compressed a real analyst job — not a future one.

Project Maven is operational across every combatant command except SOCOM, 20,000+ active users, named in the CENTCOM Red Sea strikes and Operation Epic Fury. Army 35G and Air Force 1N1 imagery analysts face the same displacement.

A cancelled helicopter program tells you where recon is headed.

FARA — the planned Kiowa Warrior successor — died in February 2024. Drones absorb the manned-recon mission instead.

Two brand-new MOS stand up on the same day.

Tactical Space Operations Specialist (40D) and AI/ML Officer (FA 49B) both go live October 1, 2026 — the Army’s first officer career path built explicitly around AI/ML operations.

AI doesn’t always mean fewer seats — sometimes it means more.

The $20B Anduril TITAN contract is expanding demand for 35T operators who can integrate AI/ML stacks into ISR pipelines. Counter-displacement is real, not just displacement.

Cavalry Scout is being reshaped under its own soldiers.

MOS 19D still exists, but ground reconnaissance is increasingly UAS-mediated at brigade and squadron level — the job title survived, the day-to-day didn’t.

Bomber crews are living the highest-tempo stretch in a decade.

48 bomber task force dispatches in 18 months, per Air Force Global Strike Command’s own commander — the most demand he’s seen in 5 to 10 years.

The Pentagon tightened its own deployment-to-dwell rule in 2021 — and hasn’t been graded on it since 2018.

Active component goal moved from 1:2 to 1:3 (Reserve: 1:4 to 1:5). No GAO or CRS report has independently checked whether the services are actually meeting it since GAO’s 2018 finding of 145,000 missing deployment records.

Census publishes real earnings by MOS — but no one ranks translation difficulty.

Combat medics and mechanics feed real civilian licenses through COOL, and Census VEO shows it in the paycheck: specialized MOS out-earn infantry within a year of discharge. Combat arms doesn’t have that hand-off, because no civilian licensing scheme exists for small-unit tactics. That’s a structural gap, not a skills gap — and turning it into an actual ranking is Vol. 2 work.

Two sections of this report are intentionally blank.

The Recruiter Lie Index and Branch-by-Branch Comparison both require k≥ 20 verified reviews per MOS. The platform doesn’t have that volume yet. We’re publishing the gap instead of faking the finding.

Section 02

The MOS Mortality List.

Every deprecation, consolidation, and quiet retirement — with the originating MILPER, NAVADMIN, MARADMIN, AFI, ALSPACE, or ALCOAST message that ended it. The first draft of an honest historical record.

0317

Deprecated

Scout Sniper. Peak strength approximately 300 trained scout snipers across the FMF post-9/11. The MOS was eliminated by force-design decision in February 2023. Successor 0322 Reconnaissance Sniper is restricted to Reconnaissance Battalions and MARSOC. The infantry battalion replacement construct is a 26-Marine Scout Platoon with organic UAS at every echelon — Black Hornet at fire team, Skydio-class at squad, Stalker Block 30 at company. The MOS traces to World War II.

Successor: 0322

“Phase-out announced February 2023; final formal 0317 class graduated 2023-12-15.”

Dec 15, 2023

BRANCH_PRESS

25L

Consolidated

Cable Systems Installer-Maintainer (WAN cabling subset). Consolidated into 25H effective 2022-10-01. Subset of legacy 25L functions migrated; remaining cable-plant work was reabsorbed elsewhere.

Successor: 25H

“25H is a combination of former occupational specialties 25L (cable systems installers), 25N (nodal network system operators), and 25Q (multichannel transmission system operators).”

Oct 1, 2022

BRANCH_PRESS

25N

Consolidated

Nodal Network Systems Operator/Maintainer. Consolidated into 25H effective 2022-10-01.

Successor: 25H

“25H is a combination of former occupational specialties 25L (cable systems installers), 25N (nodal network system operators), and 25Q (multichannel transmission system operators).”

Oct 1, 2022

BRANCH_PRESS

25Q

Consolidated

Multichannel Transmission Systems Operator/Maintainer. Consolidated into 25H Network Communications Systems Specialist effective 2022-10-01. The split between operator (25Q), nodal admin (25N), and cable plant (25L) was an FM/SATCOM-era construct that collapsed under IP convergence.

Successor: 25H

“25H is a combination of former occupational specialties 25L (cable systems installers), 25N (nodal network system operators), and 25Q (multichannel transmission system operators) ... the first new MOS the Army has created in two years.”

Oct 1, 2022

BRANCH_PRESS

09L

Deprecated

Interpreter/Translator. Born 2003 to provide Arabic, Pashto, and Dari speakers for Iraq and Afghanistan. The Army's decision to eliminate the MOS (MILPER 21-172, 2021-05-27) came about three months before the fall of Kabul (2021-08-15). Translator/Interpreter Platoons inactivated by 2021-09-30; the MOS was deleted from the Army inventory 2022-05-01 — after both the Afghanistan withdrawal and the December 2021 end of the US combat mission in Iraq, not before.

“The Army will inactivate Translator/Interpreter Platoons no later than 30 Sep 21, which results in the elimination of the Army structure for MOS 09L on 30 Sep 21 and the deletion of the MOS from the Army inventory effective 1 May 22.”

May 1, 2022

MILPER

3DXXX

Consolidated

Cyberspace Support career field (entire 3DXXX family). Subordinate AFSCs disestablished: 3D0X1 through 3D0X4, 3D1X1 through 3D1X4, 3D1X7. Reframed under operational 1D7XX Cyber Defense Operations.

Successor: 1D7XX

“Effective Nov. 1, 2021, all cyber enlisted Airmen transitioned from the 3DXXX Cyberspace Support Air Force Specialty Code to the 1D7XX Cyber Defense Operations AFSC.”

Nov 1, 2021

BRANCH_PRESS

2146

Deprecated

Main Battle Tank Repairer/Technician. Deprecated under MARADMIN 302/20. Maintainers reclassified into other 21XX maintenance fields.

“Four MOSs were cut: 1812, 1869, 2146 (main battle tank repairer/technician), 1802.”

May 5, 2021

MARADMIN

1869

Deprecated

Senior Armor Staff NCO. Deprecated under MARADMIN 302/20 as part of the Marine Corps Force Design tank-field closure.

“Four MOSs were cut as part of the plan: 1812, 1869 (senior armor staff noncommissioned officer), 2146, and 1802.”

May 5, 2021

MARADMIN

1802

Deprecated

Tank Officer. Deprecated alongside 1812/1869/2146 under MARADMIN 302/20. Officers reclassified or laterally moved to other ground-combat MOSs.

“Four MOSs were cut as part of the plan: 1812, 1869, 2146, and 1802 (tank officer).”

May 5, 2021

MARADMIN

1812

Deprecated

M1A1 Tank Crewman. Peak strength approximately 1,300 Marines across Field 18 at closure. The final active tank battalion (2d Tank Battalion) deactivated 2021-05-05 under MARADMIN 302/20, "Manpower Force Shaping in Support of Force Design Phase One" (dated 2020-05-21). The decision retired the Marine Corps tank field entirely.

“Four MOSs were cut as part of the plan: 1812 (armor Marine), 1869 (senior armor staff noncommissioned officer), 2146 (main battle tank repairer/technician), and 1802 (tank officer).”

May 5, 2021

MARADMIN

0351

Deprecated

Infantry Assaultman. Peak strength approximately 500 assaultmen at announcement. Phase-out announced January 2018; SOI stopped producing 0351s October 2018; remaining 0351s reclassified to 0311 on 2020-10-02. SMAW (MK-153) capability shifted to combat engineers.

Successor: 0311

“Beginning in October, the Marine Corps will no longer be producing 0351s at either of its Schools of Infantry.”

Oct 2, 2020

BRANCH_PRESS

ETR

Consolidated

Electronics Technician, Communications (Submarines). Peak strength approximately 1,600 active ETR Sailors at merger. Consolidated into ITS (Information Systems Technician, Submarines), which was split into ITS-COMMS and ITS-EW service ratings.

Successor: ITS

“NAVADMIN 066/20. Merger of ETR into ITS effective 2020-06-01; ratings badges converted NLT 2021-03-01.”

Jun 1, 2020

NAVADMIN

Section 03

The MOS Inflation List.

Every new MOS standup, reinstatement, and split — cyber, space, drone, and AI billets the services are building right now. Sourced to the same message classes as the Mortality List.

Created

Robotics Warfare Specialist. New Navy enlisted rating for RAS operations/maintenance, computer vision, mission and navigation autonomy, and AI/ML at the tactical edge. Open to Active Duty E4-E9 via conversion from source ratings in unmanned-vehicle billets; SELRES integration to follow. A genuinely new rating, not a rename or split — the strongest "born" signal in this volume.

“NAVADMIN 036/24 (221735Z FEB 24): "this NAVADMIN announces the establishment of the Robotics Warfare Specialist (RW) general rating. RW Sailors will enable Robotic and Autonomous System (RAS) operations and maintenance at the tactical edge."”

Feb 22, 2024

NAVADMIN

26B

Reinstated

Data Systems Engineering (AOC, retitled). Part of the Army's post-2022 "Information Advantage" / data-operations push; closest the Army has come to creating a "data" officer track, though the substance is a retitle of an existing FA 26 code rather than a clean net-new MOS.

“Army COOL — AOC 26B Data Systems Engineering retitled effective FY24 (2023-10-01) from Information Systems Engineering.”

Oct 1, 2023

BRANCH_PRESS

CWT

Created

Cyber Warfare Technician. First brand-new Navy enlisted rate created specifically for cyberspace. Mandated by Congress in the FY23 NDAA. Disestablished the CTN (Cryptologic Technician — Networks) rate. The "creation" is largely a re-label — Congress wanted a visibly distinct cyber rate that lived outside the cryptologic technician umbrella, partly to compete with industry recruiting and to firewall cyber career paths from the SIGINT community.

Split from: CTN

“NAVADMIN 147/23 — Cyber Warfare Technician (CWT) rate established 2023-06-28. Mandated by Congress in the FY23 NDAA (signed 2022-12-23).”

Jun 28, 2023

NAVADMIN

1880

Created

Maritime Cyber Warfare Officer. Direct accession or lateral transfer from URL/IWC communities; initial training at Center for Information Warfare Training. Closes the documented gap (since at least the 2017 collisions) of officers who understand both a destroyer's combat system and a network exploit.

“NAVADMIN 143/23 — Maritime Cyber Warfare Officer (1880) designator established June 2023.”

Jun 1, 2023

BRANCH_PRESS

1707

Created

Influence Officer (PSYOP / MISO). Created in the 17XX Information Maneuver OccFld redesignation.

“MARADMIN 102/22 — 17XX IM OccFld effective 2022-10-01.”

Oct 1, 2022

MARADMIN

1706

Created

Maritime Space Officer. Created in the 17XX Information Maneuver OccFld redesignation (effective 2022-10-01). The 1700 cyber OccFld broadened into space, EMSO, PSYOP/influence, and civil affairs — "cyber" was the Trojan horse for a much larger info-ops bureaucratic expansion.

“MARADMIN 102/22 redesignated the 1700 OccFld as the 17XX Information Maneuver OccFld; population re-coded 2022-10-01.”

Oct 1, 2022

MARADMIN

19ZXX

Created

Special Warfare Officer. Created 2020-04-30, consolidating the previously separate 13D Combat Rescue Officer, 13C Special Tactics Officer, and 13L TACP Officer paths into a unified 19ZXX career field.

Split from: 13XX

“Air Force established the 19ZXX Special Warfare Officer AFSC effective 2020-04-30, consolidating combat rescue officer (CRO), special tactics officer (STO), and TACP officer career paths.”

Apr 30, 2020

BRANCH_PRESS

USSF

Created

U.S. Space Force standup. First independent service established since 1947. Initial AFSC catalog forked from USAF; Space Force Specialty Codes (SFSCs) rolling out progressively. The Personnel Management Act (PMA) — the law creating a single integrated active/reserve workforce specific to USSF — was not enacted until FY24, meaning the force operated for four years on borrowed Air Force personnel plumbing.

“NDAA FY20 (signed 2019-12-20) established the U.S. Space Force as the sixth armed service. First transfer tranche of 2,410 active-component Airmen on 2020-09-01; ~24,000 personnel selected for transfer in the initial wave.”

Dec 20, 2019

STATUTE

17B

Split from

Cyber and Electronic Warfare Officer. October 2018 transition moved EW personnel from the 29-series into the 17-series under the new Cyber branch. Before the move, enlisted Soldiers could only join EW as NCOs; after, junior enlisted can enter directly from basic.

Split from: 29-series

“Electronic Warfare migrated from 29-series into 17-series under the Cyber branch effective October 2018.”

Oct 1, 2018

BRANCH_PRESS

17E

Split from

Electronic Warfare Specialist. Migrated from the 29E NCO track to the new junior-enlisted-accessible 17E MOS under CMF 17 (October 2018).

Split from: 29E

“Army COOL — 17E Electronic Warfare Specialist established under CMF 17 effective October 2018.”

Oct 1, 2018

BRANCH_PRESS

1711

Created

Offensive Cyberspace Operator. Created under MARADMIN 136/18 (2018-03-01).

“MARADMIN 136/18 — 1700 OccFld standup 2018-03-01.”

Mar 1, 2018

MARADMIN

1702

Created

Cyberspace Warfare Officer. Created in the 2018-03-01 standup of the 1700 OccFld via MARADMIN 136/18 — the largest single-day expansion of the USMC MOS catalog in a decade (seven new MOSs in one document).

“MARADMIN 136/18 established the 1700 Cyberspace Occupational Field on 2018-03-01.”

Mar 1, 2018

MARADMIN

1799

Created

Cyberspace Warfare Chief. Senior-NCO leadership MOS within the 1700 OccFld.

“Marine COOL — 1799 Cyberspace Warfare Chief established under the 1700 OccFld (2018-03-01).”

Mar 1, 2018

MARADMIN

1721

Created

Defensive Cyberspace Operator / Cyberspace Warfare Operator. Pipeline includes the Joint Cyber Analysis Course (JCAC) at Pensacola (~6 months); follow-on at JFHQ-DODIN / MARFORCYBER.

“Marine COOL — 1721 Cyberspace Warfare Operator established 2018-03-01 under the 1700 OccFld.”

Mar 1, 2018

MARADMIN

17C

Created

Cyber Operations Specialist. AIT at Fort Eisenhower (Cyber Center of Excellence); Joint Cyber Analysis Course (JCAC, Pensacola) for senior pipeline. Initial-entry pipeline runs ~10 months including JCAC. ASVAB GT 110+ / ST 112+ commonly cited; TS/SCI required. NPS Joint Applied Project AD1164405 puts the replacement cost of a fully-certified Interactive On-Net (ION) operator at ~$400,000 against a $92,000 / 6-year retention bonus; reenlistment at the 72-month gate drops to 30-40% (GAO-23-105423 corroborates senior-enlisted as the Army's worst cyber retention pain point).

“HRC MILPER 15-165 (June 2015) established the enlisted transition pathway into the new MOS 17C Cyber Operations Specialist.”

Jun 3, 2015

MILPER

170A

Created

Cyber Warfare Technician (Warrant Officer). Established with the Cyber Branch on 2014-09-01.

“Cyber Warfare Technician (170A) stood up with the Cyber Branch on 2014-09-01.”

Sep 1, 2014

BRANCH_PRESS

17A

Created

Cyber Warfare Officer (AOC). Branch 17 established 2014-09-01 — the first new Army officer branch in over 25 years. Pipeline: BOLC at Fort Eisenhower (~6 months), then assignment to a cyber mission force team or USCYBERCOM-aligned unit.

“Cyber Branch (17) established 2014-09-01 by SecArmy McHugh and CSA Odierno — the first new Army officer branch in over 25 years.”

Sep 1, 2014

BRANCH_PRESS

1840

Created

Cyber Warfare Engineer (Restricted Line officer). Established by NAVADMIN 205/10 (June 2010). Earliest Navy officer designator dedicated to cyber.

“NAVADMIN 205/10 established the Cyber Warfare Engineer (1840) Restricted Line officer designator in June 2010.”

Jun 1, 2010

NAVADMIN

15W

Split from

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operator. Redesignated from 96U (MI branch) in 2006 as drone operations migrated from intelligence to aviation branch oversight.

Split from: 96U

“Army COOL — 15W UAS Operator redesignated from 96U (MI branch, 1993) in 2006.”

Jan 1, 2006

BRANCH_PRESS

Section 05

The Drone Displacement Map.

Pre-drone doctrine vs. post-drone task allocation, by MOS. Cited to RAND, CSBA, service messages, and defense reporting. Early data — this list grows every volume.

15-seriesMedium confidence~3 years out

FARA cancellation (Feb 2024) ended the planned Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft program. Aviation MOS workforce trajectory affected — Kiowa Warrior already retired (2017); FARA was to be the manned-recon replacement. Drones absorb the role instead.

Army aviation MOS family (15-series). The OH-58 Kiowa replacement-by-cancellation. FARA cancellation reshapes the aviation career field; specific MOS-level billet impacts not yet published but the manned-recon-helicopter community is shrinking.

Recommended pivot: 15W

“Army announced FARA cancellation February 2024; aviation restructuring follows.”

breakingdefense.com ↗

19DMedium confidenceHappening now

Partial-displacement case. Cavalry Scout reconnaissance role is increasingly drone-augmented through Group 1/2/3 UAS at the brigade and squadron level. MOS still exists; task allocation has shifted from human-led ground reconnaissance to UAS-mediated sensing.

Cavalry Scout (Army). The role persists but the work is increasingly drone-mediated. Approximately 3,000 19Ds were directed to reclass under MILPER 24-090/24-099 (separate from drone displacement but compounds the workforce pressure). If formation reductions continue, 19D could consolidate with 19C — flagged for Vol. 2 watchlist.

Recommended pivot: 19C, 15W

“RAND analysis of post-2020 cavalry recon doctrine documenting UAS-mediated task shift.”

rand.org ↗

13FMedium confidenceHappening now

Partial-displacement case. Forward Observer role is increasingly served by drone spotting + precision-guided munitions (Excalibur, M982A1). Traditional FO ground-eye-call-for-fire task migrating to drone-fed targeting.

Forward Observer (Army). Precision-guided artillery + drone spot integration changing FO work allocation. Loitering munitions (Switchblade family) further compress the FO role by combining sensor + shooter.

Recommended pivot: 13B, 15W

“CSBA analysis of loitering-munition impact on traditional indirect-fire MOS roles.”

csbaonline.org ↗

0317High confidenceHappening now

Full-deletion case. Marine Scout Sniper MOS eliminated 2023-12-15 (final class graduation). Force-design replacement explicitly cites organic UAS at every echelon: Black Hornet at fire team, Skydio-class at squad, Stalker Block 30 at company.

Scout Sniper (USMC). The single cleanest documented full-deletion case in the U.S. force tied to drone displacement. Successor 0322 Reconnaissance Sniper restricted to Recon Bns/MARSOC; infantry battalion gets a 26-Marine Scout Platoon with organic UAS at every echelon. Cross-references the §2 mortality entry for the same MOS.

Recommended pivot: 0322

“HQMC announced 2023-02 the elimination of scout sniper platoons from infantry battalions; replacement formation uses organic UAS at every echelon.”

marinecorpstimes.com ↗

Section 06

The AI Displacement Forecast.

Intel, imagery, targeting — where AI tooling is compressing the task, and where it's expanding the seat instead. Every entry carries a confidence label; we do not upgrade confidence to make a finding more shareable.

13AMedium confidence~3 years out

Field Artillery Officer decision-support role being augmented by AI-assisted targeting through Project Convergence integration. Operation Epic Fury (Feb-Mar 2026) demonstrated 13,000 targets processed in 38 days using AI-augmented targeting; the human officer remains in the loop but the tempo and span of control have shifted.

Field Artillery Officer (Army). Augmented, not displaced. The targeting cycle has compressed; the FA officer's job shifts toward higher-level decision authority and AI-tool oversight rather than manual fire mission processing.

“Operation Epic Fury (2026) demonstrated 13,000 targets in 38 days via AI-augmented targeting cycle.”

defenseone.com ↗

FA 49BHigh confidence~1 year out

NEW MOS — AI/ML Officer. Stands up 2026-10-01 (same effective date as 40D). VTIP window January 5 - February 6, 2026. First Army officer career path explicitly dedicated to AI/ML operations.

Army FA 49B AI/ML Officer. The first US military officer MOS with AI/ML in the title. Resolves the Section 3 honest-gap finding that "no service has yet created an MOS with AI or machine learning in the title" — that gap closes 2026-10-01.

Recommended pivot: FA 49, FA 26, 170A

“Army announces FA 49B AI/ML Officer specialty effective October 1, 2026; VTIP window January 5 - February 6, 2026.”

army.mil ↗

40DHigh confidence~1 year out

NEW MOS — Tactical Space Operations Specialist. Stands up 2026-10-01 with approximately 1,000 billets, growing to 1,500 by 2032. Application window January 1 - April 30, 2026. Training pipeline at the Space and Missile Defense Center of Excellence, Peterson SFB.

Army's new tactical space MOS. The Army has had FA 40 space operations officers since 1998; 40D is the new enlisted/warrant counterpart for tactical-echelon space support. Five-source confirmation: Army.mil articles 285210 and 290190, Army Times, Breaking Defense, Stars and Stripes.

Recommended pivot: FA 40

“Army announces stand-up of MOS 40D Tactical Space Operations Specialist effective October 1, 2026.”

army.mil ↗

35THigh confidenceHappening now

COUNTER-DISPLACEMENT case. AI tooling expands the 35T role rather than compressing it. The Army's TITAN deep-sensing ground station — a $178.4M Palantir-led Prototype Maturation Phase award (10 prototypes; Anduril and other firms as technology partners, not prime) — increases demand for operators who can integrate AI/ML stacks into operational ISR pipelines.

Military Intelligence Systems Maintainer/Integrator. 35T is the canonical example of an AI-augmented (not AI-displaced) MOS. TITAN's Prototype Maturation Phase (10 prototypes, 5 Advanced/5 Basic, Palantir USG prime, Anduril and others as partners, 24-month period) grows demand for integrator skills as the AI stack proliferates. Recommended for current 35Gs facing displacement: 35T is the most natural pivot inside the MI branch.

“"$178.4 million other transaction agreement, which calls for the delivery of 10 prototypes" — five "basic" and five "advanced" variants over a 24-month period. Prime: Palantir Technologies (Palantir USG).”

defensescoop.com ↗

1N1High confidenceHappening now

Air Force imagery analyst (1N1X1) faces the same Maven displacement as Army 35G. Same Tier A evidence base; AF-specific deployment paths through CDAO and Air Force ISR enterprise integration.

Geospatial Intelligence (Air Force). Mirrors Army 35G analysis. Maven was operationally deployed across the combatant command structure; the AF watch-floor task allocation has compressed faster than headcount has shrunk.

Recommended pivot: 1N4, 1N0

“See 35G citation; Maven applies enterprise-wide across DoD ISR.”

defenseone.com ↗

0211High confidenceHappening now

NOT-DISPLACED anchor. Marine CI/HUMINT remains a human-judgment task; Marine Corps is actively recruiting into 0211 as of November 2025 with no AI-tool deployment in field-level CI work.

Counterintelligence / HUMINT Specialist (USMC). Useful as the reference case for "AI is not replacing every cognitive task." Field-level human source operation, debriefing, and counterintelligence investigations remain analog. Section 6 needs an anchor like this to keep the displacement story honest.

“USMC continued 0211 recruiting through 2025-2026 with no AI tooling deployment in CI/HUMINT field operations.”

marines.mil ↗

35GHigh confidenceHappening now

Project Maven has compressed the imagery-analyst cognitive task. Maven is operational across every combatant command except SOCOM, has 20,000+ active users, was named operationally in CENTCOM Red Sea/Yemen strikes (2024) and Operation Epic Fury (Feb-Mar 2026), and transitions to a CDAO program of record September 2026.

Imagery Analyst (Army). Maven was specifically built for this cognitive task in 2017. The 2026 deployment scope means entry-level watch-floor work is the displacement target — not senior interpretation roles. Compressed, not eliminated. Recommended pivot for current 35Gs: lean toward GEOINT analytic-tradecraft roles or pivot toward 35T (which is counter-displaced; see below).

Recommended pivot: 35T, 35F

“Maven users grew from a pilot of fewer than 1,000 in 2023 to 20,000+ active users by 2024-2025 across every COCOM except SOCOM, with operational use in CENTCOM strikes (2024) and Operation Epic Fury (2026); transitions to CDAO program of record September 2026.”

defenseone.com ↗

Section 08

The Civilian Transition Gap.

Which MOS translates cleanly, and which strands you. No government source ranks translation difficulty directly — but the Census Bureau does publish real earnings-by-MOS data, which our first research pass missed and an external reviewer caught. Below: that dataset, the real tooling that exists, and our own honest read on why some seats translate more cleanly than others.

What Census actually publishes

The Census Bureau's Veteran Employment Outcomes (VEO) program links DoD service records to national wage data for more than 2.8 million enlisted service members discharged 2002–2021, publishing civilian earnings and employment outcomes — one, five, and ten years after discharge — by military occupation, rank, and demographics, across all five branches. The VEO Explorer tool lets a veteran look up outcomes for their own MOS code directly.

Headline numbers from the January 2025 release: Army operational intelligence specialists earned roughly $55,000 in year one versus roughly $33,000 for infantry; unmanned-vehicle operators earned $52,000–$83,000 depending on branch. Specialized/technical MOS consistently out-earn combat-arms MOS in the first year out.

What VEO does not do: rank translation difficulty, measure underemployment against licensing pathways, or connect COOL credential availability to outcomes. It publishes earnings and employment — it does not build the composite “how hard is this MOS to translate” score this section is named for. Building that (COOL credential density × O*NET crosswalk × VEO earnings, by MOS) is real, gettable, unclaimed work — we're committing it for Vol. 2.

Veteran Employment Outcomes, U.S. Census Bureau ↗

The tool that exists

The Department of Labor's O*NET Military Crosswalk Center maps military occupation codes — Army MOS, Air Force AFSC, Navy/Coast Guard ratings, Marine Corps MOS, Space Force SFSC — to civilian O*NET occupations. Enter a code or job title and branch; it returns matched civilian careers. It is a lookup tool, not a ranking of transition difficulty.

O*NET Military Crosswalk Center, DOL/ETA ↗

The program that funds it

Army Credentialing Opportunities On-Line (COOL) indexes civilian certifications and licenses against every MOS and funds the exam itself through Credentialing Assistance: up to $2,000 per year, three credentials per 10 years ($1,000/year cap for aviation credentials). Army COOL alone lists access to credentials across 1,600+ career options. Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps run equivalent COOL programs.

Army COOL, official benefits page ↗goarmy.com, certifications & credentials ↗

Why some seats translate and some don't — our read, not an official ranking

Technical, medical, and mechanical MOS map onto real civilian licenses and certifications a hiring manager already recognizes — combat medic training feeds directly into EMT/AEMT certification, wheeled-vehicle maintenance feeds ASE certification, IT and cyber roles feed CompTIA and vendor certifications. COOL exists to fund exactly that hand-off.

Ground combat-arms MOS don't have that hand-off available — not because the skills aren't real, but because there is no civilian occupational license for small-unit tactics or weapons employment to plug into. The leadership and decision-making under pressure genuinely transfers; it just doesn't clear a licensing exam the way a medical or technical MOS does. That structural gap, not a skills gap, is what strands combat-arms veterans in translation.

The honest gap

Correction from Vol. 1's pre-publication review: an earlier draft of this section claimed no government source publishes veteran outcomes by MOS. That was wrong — Census VEO does, cited above. The gap that survives the correction: no source, government or otherwise, ranks MOS by translationdifficulty, connects COOL credential density to outcomes, or measures underemployment against licensing pathways. That composite is unclaimed, gettable work, and it's the actual Section 8 table we owe you — committed for Vol. 2.

Section 09

The OPTEMPO Truth.

Deployments, TDY, family impact — published data, aggregated honestly. The honest ceiling here is lower than you'd hope: nothing below is broken out by MOS, because no public source breaks it out by MOS. We say that plainly instead of inferring a number.

The legal ceiling

10 U.S.C. § 991 caps deployment at 220 days in any 365-day window, or 400 days in any 730-day window, absent a Secretary-approved exception — and requires DoD to keep a central, individual-level deployment-day repository.

10 U.S.C. § 991, Cornell LII ↗

The dwell-ratio goal

Since November 2021, DoD policy sets a 1:3 deployment-to-dwell goal for the active component (three years home for every year deployed, up from the prior 1:2 floor) and 1:5 for the reserve component (up from 1:4).

Military Times, Sept. 16, 2021 ↗

The data DoD admits it doesn't have

GAO's last dedicated look at this, in 2018, found DoD's own PERSTEMPO tracking missing at least 145,000 deployment records for 2014–2016, with occupational information absent from 30% of the records that did exist. No GAO or CRS report since has re-graded whether the services are meeting the dwell-ratio goal above — that's a 7-plus-year gap in independent oversight, not a number we can fill in for them.

GAO-18-253, April 25, 2018 ↗

What tempo looks like at the platform level

Since by-MOS numbers don't exist publicly, here's what does — platform- and unit-level tempo signals that stand in for the job-level picture DoD isn't publishing:

Air Force Global Strike Command dispatched bomber task forces 48 times in 18 months (16 overseas deployments, 8 no-notice activations) — the highest bomber demand its commander has seen in 5–10 years.

Air & Space Forces Magazine, July 31, 2025 ↗

USS Eisenhower deployed three times in five years against a historical norm of once every three years, including a twice-extended 275-day Middle East deployment.

Stars and Stripes, Aug. 4, 2024 ↗

Family impact

DoD's 2024 Active Duty Spouse Survey put civilian spouse unemployment at 20% DoD-wide (Army 22%, Navy 20%, Marine Corps 21%, Air Force and Space Force 16%); 23% of spouses had PCS'd in the prior 12 months, and a PCS "more than doubled the odds" a spouse was unemployed. 28% needed a new professional license after their last PCS.

Caveat we're publishing rather than hiding: DoD counts some spouses as unemployed who standard BLS/Census methodology would count as out of the workforce. Applying that methodology drops the headline DoD-wide figure from ~20% to roughly ~14% — still well above the national rate, but the 20% number is not apples-to-apples with a civilian unemployment statistic.

DoD 2024 Active Duty Spouse Survey (Military OneSource) ↗Navy Times, June 17, 2026 ↗

Sections 04 & 10

The Recruiter Lie Index & Branch-by-Branch Comparison.

Not enough data to show safely. Both sections require k ≥ 20 raw reviewers per MOS — a head count, not a weighted sum — before verification weighting is applied to the resulting score (see Section 12, Population Thresholds). The platform does not yet have that volume of verified, non-seed reviews.

We are publishing this gap openly rather than filling it with seed content dressed up as findings — that would violate the same no-fabrication standard this report holds every other section to. These sections populate as real review volume arrives.

Section 11

The 2026–2030 Forecast.

What's already locked in, and what's still in motion — pulled forward from the same sourced signals behind Sections 5 and 6, not new speculation.

Locked in — standing up within a year

FA 49BHigh confidence~1 year out

NEW MOS — AI/ML Officer. Stands up 2026-10-01 (same effective date as 40D). VTIP window January 5 - February 6, 2026. First Army officer career path explicitly dedicated to AI/ML operations.

Recommended pivot: FA 49, FA 26, 170A

“Army announces FA 49B AI/ML Officer specialty effective October 1, 2026; VTIP window January 5 - February 6, 2026.”

army.mil ↗

40DHigh confidence~1 year out

Recommended pivot: FA 40

“Army announces stand-up of MOS 40D Tactical Space Operations Specialist effective October 1, 2026.”

army.mil ↗

In motion — 3 to 10 years out

13AMedium confidence~3 years out

“Operation Epic Fury (2026) demonstrated 13,000 targets in 38 days via AI-augmented targeting cycle.”

defenseone.com ↗

15-seriesMedium confidence~3 years out

Recommended pivot: 15W

“Army announced FARA cancellation February 2024; aviation restructuring follows.”

breakingdefense.com ↗

A gap we're publishing openly

Our lifecycle ledger (Sections 2 and 3) ran through December 2023 as of our first pass — a reviewer flagged that the Navy Robotics Warfare rating (Feb 2024), which the Watch List calls “the single strongest ‘born’ signal there is,” was missing from it, which is exactly the kind of gap that makes a historical ledger look unreliable. We backfilled that one entry; 40D, FA 49B, the MARADMIN 624/25 drone MOS, and the rest of 2024–2026 are not yet in the ledger. This forecast leans on Section 5/6 evolution signals instead, which are current-sourced. Closing the remaining 2024–2026 ledger gap is Vol. 2 priority work, not Vol. 1.

Section 12

Methodology & Sources.

Credibility is the only product. Below: how every number on this site is sourced, weighted, and qualified — and the limits we publish openly so future volumes can correct themselves.

Verification Tiers & Weighting

Reviews and contributor inputs are weighted in aggregate calculations by the strength of identity verification associated with the submitter. We never expose identities — weighting happens on the aggregate, never on the display.

1.0×

Verified email address only.

peer_p2p

1.5×

Peer-to-peer verified by another platform member who served in the same MOS or unit.

va_api

1.75×

Verified through the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs API.

document

2.5×

Verified by official document (DD-214 redacted upload reviewed by trained reviewers, identity stripped on storage).

on_the_record

5.0×

Public, attributed content authored by a verified named contributor who has explicitly opted out of anonymity for the specific entry.

Population Thresholds

We do not publish aggregates that could be used to identify an individual. The thresholds below are minimums; sensitive cuts (base × rank × MOS) are never published regardless of population.

k ≥ 5

Hard floor for any aggregate statistic published anywhere on the platform. Below this, the display is replaced with "Not enough data to show safely."

k ≥ 10

Required for inclusion in any ranking or top-N list inside a State of the MOS section.

k ≥ 20

Required for headline rankings in Section 4 (Recruiter Lie Index) and Section 10 (Branch Comparison). k is a raw reviewer head count — verification weighting is applied only to the resulting score, never to the population count itself, so a handful of on-the-record contributors can never satisfy a threshold designed to require twenty distinct people.

Source Types

Every lifecycle event, evolution signal, and Watch List entry carries a source URL — rows without one are not published. The lifecycle ledger (Sections 2 & 3) tags each source with one of the document classes below; evolution signals and Watch List entries cite the same classes by name without a separate database field.

MILPER

Army MILPER messages (military personnel policy).

ALARACT

Army ALARACT messages.

NAVADMIN

Navy NAVADMIN administrative messages.

MARADMIN

Marine Corps MARADMIN messages.

AFI

Air Force Instruction publications.

AFMAN

Air Force Manual publications.

ALSPACE

Space Force ALSPACE messages.

ALCOAST

Coast Guard ALCOAST messages.

BUDGET_DOC

Department of Defense budget justification documents.

GAO

Government Accountability Office reports.

CRS

Congressional Research Service reports.

DOD_DIRECTIVE

Department of Defense directives, instructions, and manuals.

BRANCH_PRESS

Official branch press releases.

STATUTE

Public Law / U.S. Code, e.g. the annual NDAA.

THINKTANK

RAND, CSBA, and similar research-institute publications (Watch List, evolution signals).

NEWS

Defense trade press (Breaking Defense, Defense One, Stars and Stripes, service Times outlets).

Limitations We Publish Openly

Real-time DoD strength reports below the publicly-released aggregate level are not available to us. We use FY budget documents and DMDC published tables only.
Per-MOS attrition statistics beyond what GAO and CRS publish are not synthesized. We cite, we do not infer.
Classified MOS data is never in scope.
Sample sizes below k ≥ 5 are never published, even when other outlets would.
The Recruiter Lie Index (Section 4) is bounded by review volume per MOS. Where volume is below threshold, the entry is labeled "Early data" or omitted from headline rankings.
Forecasts (Sections 6 and 11) carry explicit confidence labels. Low-confidence forecasts are published with that label intact; we do not upgrade confidence to make findings more shareable.

Funding & Conflicts

Honest MOS does not accept Department of Defense funding, defense contractor funding, recruiting-org funding, or political-committee funding. Funding disclosed in full in each volume.

No advertiser, sponsor, or donor influences section selection or findings. Editorial separation between advertising and content is a load-bearing platform constraint.

Errata & Corrections

Section 12 of each volume includes an errata subhead listing corrections to prior volumes. We treat erratum publication as credibility-building, not embarrassing. Corrections submitted by readers receive a verifiable acknowledgment.

Frequently asked

What this is — and what it isn’t.

What is State of the MOS?

State of the MOS is the twice-a-year, cross-branch, independent reference on the health and trajectory of every Military Occupational Specialty in the U.S. military. Vol. 1 releases July 31, 2026, with a new volume every six months after that.

Why does this need to exist?

MOS are not static. They are created, renamed, consolidated, automated, and quietly killed. Drones reshaped Cavalry Scout’s recon role. AI is eating intel analysis. Cyber MOS were invented from scratch in the last decade. The Department of Defense does not publish a public-facing reference on this evolution, and recruiters do not disclose it to candidates. State of the MOS fills that gap.

When does Vol. 1 release?

July 31, 2026, at 06:00 ET. Embargoed pre-release access is offered to a small, named partner list including branch associations, service-academy alumni magazines, and select defense journalists.

How is the data sourced?

Lifecycle events (births, renames, consolidations, deprecations) are sourced from Army MILPER and ALARACT messages, Navy NAVADMIN, Marine MARADMIN, Air Force AFI/AFMAN updates, Space Force ALSPACE, Coast Guard ALCOAST, GAO and CRS reports, and DoD budget documents. Every row in our public database carries a source URL. Evolution signals (drone displacement, AI displacement) are sourced from public RAND, CSBA, AFRL, DARPA, and DoD doctrine publications. Review-derived sections use the platform’s anonymous, tiered-verification review architecture and apply verification weighting per Honest MOS methodology.

How do you keep individuals from being identified?

State of the MOS publishes at the MOS × branch level only. We do not publish MOS × base × rank tuples that could isolate individuals. Sections that draw on reviews enforce a minimum population threshold of k≥5, and ranking sections require k≥20. The platform’s anonymity architecture, identity boundary rules, and OPSEC scanner apply to every input that feeds an aggregate.

Who funds State of the MOS?

Honest MOS does not accept Department of Defense money, defense-contractor money, or recruiting-org money. Funding sources are disclosed in Section 12 (Methodology) of every volume. No advertiser, sponsor, or donor influences section selection or findings.

How do I cite a finding from this report?

Cite the section page URL plus the source URL listed in the underlying data row. For the report as a whole, cite "State of the MOS, Vol. N (Honest MOS, [year])" followed by the page URL. Citation format buttons appear on every published section.